Prediction of Unauthorized Absence

A multivariate equation for predicting elopement (unauthorized absence from the hospital) was derived from 3,383 psychiatric inpatients and cross-validated with another sample, using mental status, diagnostic, and demographic data. The rate for correctly predicting elopement was 72 percent, yielding a high-risk group with a one-in-ten chance of eloping and a low-risk group with a one-in-40 chance. The authors present correlation coefficients of individual predictors of elopement and discuss these in terms of their theoretical implications.