Signs and symptoms as predictors of outcome: a report from the International Pilot Study of Schizophrenia

The prognostic significance of signs and symptoms taken individually rather than in diagnostic clusters was investigated in 61 schizophrenic patients seen at 5-year follow-up in the Washington Center of the International Pilot Study of Schizophrenia. Best and worst outcome patients (Ns = 20) were selected on the basis of total outcome score from a reliable 9-item schedule; 21 middle-outcome patients were excluded. Data from these two groups were analyzed to determine which signs and symptoms assessed 5 years previously were associated with outcome. Only restricted affect predicted poor outcome: depression, anxiety, and nuclear symptoms of schizophrenia were not significant predictors. The findings are discussed within the conceptual framework of productive and defect symptoms.