Psychotic Experiences and Psychotic Disorders at Age 18 in Relation to Psychotic Experiences at Age 12 in a Longitudinal Population-Based Cohort Study
Abstract
Objective
Method
Results
Conclusions
Method
Sample
Measures
Psychotic experiences at age 18.
Reliability.
Psychotic disorders and at-risk mental states at age 18.
Psychotic experiences at age 12.
Sociodemographic characteristics.
Statistical Analysis
Results
Psychotic Experiences at Age 18
Psychotic Experiences | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
None | Suspected | Definite | Anya | Analysis | ||||||
Characteristic | N | % | N | % | N | % | N | % | Odds Ratio | 95% CI |
Sex | ||||||||||
Male | 1,897 | 92.5 | 83 | 4.1 | 71 | 3.5 | 154 | 7.5 | 1.0 | |
Female | 2,390 | 89.6 | 120 | 4.5 | 159 | 6.0 | 279 | 10.5 | 1.4 | 1.2–1.8 |
Social classb | ||||||||||
I | 694 | 92.9 | 27 | 3.6 | 26 | 3.5 | 53 | 7.1 | 0.6 | 0.4–0.9 |
II | 1,748 | 92.5 | 65 | 3.4 | 76 | 4.0 | 141 | 7.5 | 0.6 | 0.5–0.8 |
III | 1,175 | 89.0 | 70 | 5.3 | 75 | 5.7 | 145 | 11.0 | 1.0 | |
IV | 121 | 85.8 | 8 | 5.7 | 12 | 8.5 | 20 | 14.2 | 1.3 | 0.8–2.2 |
V | 17 | 81.0 | 2 | 9.5 | 2 | 9.5 | 4 | 19.1 | 1.9 | 0.6–5.7 |
Housing | ||||||||||
Own/mortgaged | 3,355 | 91.9 | 148 | 4.1 | 146 | 4.0 | 294 | 8.1 | 1.0 | |
Council rent | 287 | 82.5 | 26 | 7.5 | 35 | 10.1 | 61 | 17.5 | 2.4 | 1.8–3.3 |
Private rent | 164 | 85.4 | 8 | 4.2 | 20 | 10.4 | 28 | 14.6 | 1.9 | 1.3–3.0 |
Other | 117 | 94.4 | 2 | 1.6 | 5 | 4.0 | 7 | 5.7 | 0.7 | 0.3–1.5 |
Maternal partner status | ||||||||||
Husband | 3,309 | 92.2 | 134 | 3.7 | 148 | 4.1 | 282 | 7.9 | 1.0 | |
Partner | 611 | 85.9 | 43 | 6.1 | 57 | 8.0 | 100 | 14.1 | 1.9 | 1.5–2.5 |
None | 47 | 78.3 | 8 | 13.3 | 5 | 8.3 | 13 | 21.7 | 3.2 | 1.7–6.1 |
Income support | ||||||||||
No | 3,638 | 91.9 | 155 | 3.9 | 168 | 4.2 | 323 | 8.2 | 1.0 | |
Yes | 197 | 79.8 | 20 | 8.1 | 30 | 12.2 | 50 | 20.2 | 2.9 | 2.1–4.0 |
Parental educationb | ||||||||||
Certificate of Secondary Education/vocational | 422 | 85.8 | 32 | 6.5 | 38 | 7.7 | 70 | 14.2 | 2.0 | 1.5–2.8 |
Ordinary level | 1,019 | 89.6 | 52 | 4.6 | 66 | 5.8 | 118 | 10.4 | 1.4 | 1.1–1.8 |
Advanced level | 1,349 | 92.4 | 53 | 3.6 | 58 | 4.0 | 111 | 7.6 | 1.0 | |
Degree | 1,164 | 92.3 | 47 | 3.7 | 50 | 4.0 | 97 | 7.7 | 1.0 | 0.8–1.3 |
Continuity of Psychotic Experiences From Age 12 to Age 18
Psychotic Disorders at Age 18
Prediction of Psychotic Disorders at Age 18
Definite Psychotic Experience at Age 18 | Psychotic Disorders at Age 18 | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Age 12 Experiencesa | Total | N | % | Odds Ratio | 95% CI | p | N | % | Odds Ratio | 95% CI | p |
None | 2,264 | 38 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 16 | 0.7 | 1.0 | ||||
Self-reported psychotic-like experience (rated absent by interviewer) | 828 | 33 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.5–3.9 | <0.001 | 7 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.5–2.9 | 0.691 |
Interviewer-rated unusual experience | 423 | 21 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.8–5.3 | <0.001 | 10 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 1.5–7.5 | 0.003 |
Interviewer-rated psychotic experiences attributed to sleep/feverb | 75 | 8 | 10.7 | 7.0 | 3.1–15.6 | <0.001 | 3 | 4.0 | 5.9 | 1.7–20.5 | 0.006 |
Interviewer-rated suspected psychotic experience (not attributed) | 289 | 26 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 3.5–9.7 | <0.001 | 11 | 3.8 | 5.6 | 2.6–12.1 | <0.001 |
Interviewer-rated definite psychotic experience (not attributed) | 181 | 28 | 15.5 | 10.7 | 6.4–17.9 | <0.001 | 15 | 8.3 | 12.7 | 6.2–26.1 | <0.001 |
Psychotic Disorders at Age 18 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Age 12 Psychotic Experiences | Sensitivity (%) | 95% CI | Specificity (%) | 95% CI | Positive Predictive Value | 95% CI |
Definite (not attributed) | 24.2 | 22.9–25.5 | 95.9 | 95.2–96.4 | 8.3 | 7.4–9.1 |
Suspected or definite (not attributed) | 41.9 | 40.4–43.5 | 88.9 | 87.9–89.9 | 5.5 | 4.8–6.2 |
Any suspected or definite | 46.8 | 45.2–48.3 | 87.1 | 86.0–88.1 | 5.3 | 4.6–6.0 |
Any suspected or definite psychotic or unusual experience | 62.9 | 61.4–64.4 | 76.8 | 75.4–78.1 | 4.0 | 3.4–4.6 |
Any self-reported experiencesa | 74.2 | 72.9–75.5 | 56.2 | 54.7–57.8 | 2.6 | 2.1–3.1 |
At-Risk Mental States
Multiple Imputation
Discussion
Psychotic Outcomes at Age 18
Clinical Characteristics
Prediction of Psychosis
Implications of Identifying High-Risk Individuals
Conclusions
Acknowledgments
Supplementary Material
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